Where does the time go? Here we are at October 1, 2007 and just look at where we are so far… The economy is all over the map (one article says “go long” and the next one says “short the market”). The credit ripples are still building, and we are going to test our economic resilience yet again. I continue to believe that we are mid-stride in one of the most disruptive periods of change that we have seen for many years.
Yes, the dot-com bust was “disruptive” in a negative sense – we saw the pendulum swing full out and bang the edges. We just plain got ahead of ourselves (which is a repeating pattern for those of us with enough gray hair).
But this cycle seems different. The new technologies and products really seem to be more fundamental and useful. The disruptive nature of change seems much more deeply rooted. And when viewed from the right “altitude” the innovation seems more holistic.
But with all of that, high-technology remains a fascinating study in innovation and change. Look at some of the big stories:
* Virtualization continues to roll on
* Apple continues its slow but steady progress
* Intel recovers its footing
* Google continues its relentless march
* Web “2.0” seems to have real teeth
* There is more cheap bandwidth everywhere
* AT&T is back (now at&t ;-))
Examining some of the above in depth . . .
Virtualization. Not only more discrete compute machines per physical platform, but even the “bigger” virtualization – the complete abstraction of the platform to the user. Where does my word processer actually live anymore? Maybe on this box…maybe streamed to me on demand as a service? And where do I keep my file storage and backup these days? May as well use that Amazon storage backend…it is cheaper and more versatile than buying it.
And wow, talk about consumer wizzies. Check out the new Apple product line across the board. Great graphics, cool form factors, transparent cross-compatibility, and basically Operating System agnostic for all practical purposes.
We have Dual Core (x2) Microprocessors quickly moving to Octal Core (x8) with multiple sockets per motherboard and tons of memory – continuing to drive compute density up and lowering cost.
Zoom up and look at the really big picture for a second. Technology is really beginning to achieve the promise we’ve all had for it. To make our lives easier, more productive – and face it – more fun.
But I continue to watch with interest as the transitory waves, and the inescapable realities roll through our industry. These are not just the lapping waves on the beach. The water is retreating from the shore at an increasing pace… It is likely to return soon with force.
Are we witnessing a technology tsunami before our eyes?
What does Microsoft look like as a company 10 years from now? Where is Google? Does Motorola even exist?
Nature has an intractable and cruel reality. Evolve and adapt or become extinct. Watch carefully for signs of adaption with your favorite companies and sectors. If you don’t see the spark of innovation, get out.
Now on to Q4…..